Pass the PRMIA PRM Certification 8008 Questions and answers with ExamsMirror

The persistence parameter, β, is the coefficient of the most recent day's returns in GARCH calculations. A higher value of the persistence parameter tends to 'persist' the prior value of variance for longer. Consider an extreme example - if the persistence parameter is equal to 1, the variance under GARCH will never change in response to returns.

If capital calculations are done in a standard way regardless of risk (as reflected by credit ratings), then it creates a perverse incentive for the lenders' employees to lend to the riskiest borrowers that offer the highest expected returns as there is no incentive to 'save' on economic capital requirements that are equal for both safe and unsafe borrowers. Therefore statement I is correct.

Given that the portfolio of such an institution is likely to then comprise poor quality borrowers, and economic capital would be based upon 'average' expected ratings, it is likely to carry lower economic capital given its exposures. Therefore any such economic risk capital model is likely to understate economic capital requirements. Therefore statement IV is correct.

Statements II and III are incorrect and Choice 'b' is the correct answer.

Any stress test is conducted with a view to produce a dollar estimate of losses, therefore statement I is correct. However, these numbers do not come with any probabilities or confidence levels, unlike VaR, and statement III is incorrect. Stress testing can complement VaR, but not replace it, therefore statement II is not correct. Statement IV is correct as stress tests can be based on both actual historical events, or simulated factor shocks (eg, a factor, such as interest rates, moves by say 10-z).

Therefore Choice 'a' is correct.

According to a paper by the BCBS, here is an excellent summary of what happened. Based on this, Choice 'c' is the correct answer.

"At the outset of the crisis, mortgage default shocks played a part in the deterioration of market prices of collateralised debt obligations (CDOs). Simultaneously, these shocks revealed deficiencies in the models used to manage and price these products. The complexity and resulting lack of transparency led to uncertainty about the value of the underlying investment. Market participants then drastically scaled down their activity in the origination and distribution markets and liquidity disappeared. The standstill in the securitisation markets forced banks to warehouse loans that were intended to be sold in the secondary markets. Given a lack of transparency of the ultimate ownership of troubled investments, funding liquidity concerns were triggered within the banking sector as banks refused to provide sufficient funds to each other. This in turn led to the hoarding of liquidity, exacerbating further the funding pressures within the banking sector. The initial difficulties in subprime mortgages also fed through to a broader range of market instruments since the drying up of market and funding liquidity forced market participants to liquidate those positions which they could trade in order to scale back risk. An increase in risk aversion also led to a general flight to quality, an example of which was the high withdrawals by households from money market funds."

Choice 'd' represents the Basel II requirement, all other choices are incorrect.

Rating agencies target both accuracy and stability when they assign ratings. These two objectives can sometimes conflict, so a balance needs to be struck between the two. Rating agencies do not target any particular 'accuracy ratio' or rankings. Therefore Choice 'c' is the correct answer.

Credit VaR is the difference between the expected value of the portfolio and the value of the portfolio at the given confidence level. Therefore the credit VaR is $85m - $ 60m = $25m. Choice 'b' is the correct answer.

Note that economic capital and credit VaR are identical at a risk horizon of one year. Therefore if the question asks for economic capital, the answer would be the same.

[Again, an alternative way to look at this is to consider the explanation given in III.B.6.2.2: Credit Var = Q(L) - EL where Q(L) is the total loss at a given confidence interval, and EL is the expected loss. In this case Q(L) - $100-$60 = $40, and EL = $100-$85=$15. Therefore Credit VaR = $40-$15=$25.]

We will need to calculate the joint probability distribution of the portfolio as follows.Probability of the joint default of both A and B =

The marginal probabilities (ie the standalone probabilities of default of the two bonds) are known, and if we can calculate the probability of joint defaults of the two bonds, we can calculate the rest of the entries. We then multiply the probabilities with the expected loss under each scenario and add them up to get the total expected loss.

The calculations are shown below. The expected loss is $5.5m, and therefore the correct answer is Choice 'd'.

The correct answer is choice 'b'

Both statements are accurate. Basel II requires pooled probabilities of default to be applied to risk buckets that contain similar exposures. Also, stress testing is mandatory for both market and credit risk.

A computation of Altman's Z-score considers the following ratios:

- Working capital to total assets

- Retained earnings to total assets

- EBIT to total assets

- Market cap to debt

- Sales to total assets

It does not consider Net Income to total assets, therefore Choice 'c' is the correct answer. This makes sense as net income is after interest and taxes, both of which are not relevant for considering the cash flows for debt servicing.