Pass the PRMIA PRM Certification 8011 Questions and answers with ExamsMirror

The correct answer is Choice 'b'. The following is a brief description of the major approaches available to model credit risk, and the analysis that underlies them:

1. CreditMetrics: based on the credit migration framework. Considers the probability of migration to other credit ratings and the impact of such migrations on portfolio value.

2. CreditPortfolio View: similar to CreditMetrics, but adds the impact of the business cycle to the evaluation.

3. The contingent claims approach: uses option theory by considering a debt as a put option on the assets of the firm.

4. KMV's EDF (expected default frequency) based approach: relies on EDFs and distance to default as a measure of credit risk.

5. CreditRisk+: Also called the 'actuarial approach', considers default as a binary event that either happens or does not happen. This approach does not consider the loss of value from deterioration in credit quality (unless the deterioration implies default).

The CDS rate is approximated by the [Loss given default x Default hazard rate]. Thus Choice 'b' is the correct answer.

Note that this is also equal to the credit spread on the reference bond over the risk free rate. Therefore credit spreads and CDS rates are generally the same. Also, 'loss given default' is nothing but (1 - Recovery rate). This can be substituted in the formula for the credit spread to get an alternative expression that directly refers to the recovery rate. Therefore all other choices are incorrect.

The correct answer is choice 'a'

A long position in a credit sensitive bond is equivalent to earning the risk free rate and the spread on the bond. The risk free rate can be earned through a long position in a treasury bond, and the spread can be earned in the form of premiums on a CDS, which are received by the protectionseller, ie the party short a CDS contract. Therefore we can get the same results as a long bond position using a combination of a long treasury bond and a short position in a CDS. Choice 'a' is the correct answer.

All the reasons and risks presented above are valid reasons for using scenario analysis, except V and VI - ie, the need to reduce the complexity of calculations is not a valid reason for using scenarioanalysis. Similarly, making operational risk capital estimates match management's desired capital allocation targets is also not a valid reason. Capital calculations are intended to provide adequate capital for managing the risk from operations, regardless of what management may desire them to be.

Netting is the ability to set just the net balances when amounts are both owed and due. Netting can take many forms. Payment netting is netting between counterparties that owe moneys to each other in the same currency under the same transaction (or master agreement). Closeout netting is when parties settle a net amount for the value of all outstanding transactions upon the occurrence of an event of default such as bankruptcy. Multiateral netting involves a third party that sets off exposuresacross counterparties that owe moneys to each other.

Closeout netting under the ISDA master agreement enables a party to terminate transactions early if an Event of Default or Termination Event occurs in respect of the other party. It involves the calculation and netting of the termination values of all transactions to produce a single amount payable between the parties. Closeout netting is therefore the correct answer.

Simulations of liquidity needs can be of various types: historical simulations, where the current positions are subjected to the kind of liquidity shocks experienced in the past; static simulations, where a static view of current positions, counterparty credit position, and the business is considered; and dynamic simulations where all factors are dynamically changed including counterparty credit standing, changes to the current portfolio and behavioural aspects of the business. Choice 'b' is incorrect as dynamic simulations require no such assumptions.

Liquidity risk is often thought of in terms of market liquidity risk and funding liquidity risk. Market liquidity risk relates to the the liquidity for a particular type of asset drying up. For example, during the 2007-2009 crisis a large number of corporate bonds and structured products became extremely illiquid. Market liquidity risk manifests itself in the form of higher bid offer spreads, higher pricde impact, and a reduction in the normal market size (ie, the 'normal' size of a trade for which a dealer quote is valid for). Therefore Choice 'd' is correct. Similarly, Choice 'a' is incorrect as adverse price impact results from market liquidity risk and not funding liquidity risk.

Market liquidity risk applies to the entire market and all its participants. It is not idiosyncratic. Therefore Choice 'c' is incorrect too. Funding liquidity risk on the other hand applies to an individual institution that is under liquidity stress in the sense of not being able to meet its obligations such as margin or collateral calls because of a lack of liquid assets. Thus it is funding liquidity that is idiosyncratic. Market liquidity risk often leads to funding liquidity risks materializing as firms are unable to get to the funds they were relying upon due to assets becoming illiquid.

Concentration risk in a credit portfolio arises due to a high degree of correlation between the default probabilities of the issuers of securities in the portfolio. For example, the fortunes of the issuers in the same industry may be highly correlated, and an investor exposed to multiple such borrowers may face 'concentration risk'.

A low degree of correlation, or independence of individual defaults in the portfolio actually reduces or even eliminates concentration risk.

The fact that issuers are from the same country may not necessarily give rise to concentration risk - for example, a bank with all US based borrowers in different industries or with different retail exposure types may not face practically any concentration risk. What really matters is the default correlations between the borrowers, for example a lender exposed to cement producers across the globe may face a high degree of concentration risk.

Over the past decade or so, systemic risk has been increased by vastly increasing network complexities resulting from greater interconnectivity between institutions as well as countries. Therefore statement I is incorrect.

Statement II is incorrect and statement III is correct because the average path length between institutions, or their degree of separation where they are not directly dealing with each other but through other counterparties to which they are exposed (analogous to 6 degrees of separation, or the 'small world' property), has shrunk and not increased.

Statement IV correctly describes knife edge dynamics, which is another way of waying that the financial network displays a tipping point property.

Be wary of questions asking you to calculate VaR where the mean or expected returns are different from zero. The VaR formula of z-value times standard deviation needs to have an adjustment for theexpected return [ie use VaR = z-value times standard deviation minus expected return]. In this case, the standard deviation for 1 day for the portfolio is =SQRT(1/250)*20%*$10m = $126,491. The VaR is therefore (2.326 * $126,491) - ($10,000,000 * 10% * 1/250) = $290,218.

The current exposure is negative, so there is no immediate credit exposure. However, since the price of the derivative is volatile, we can reasonably expect the value to be greater than zero sometime in the future. This is a stochastic variable which will have a distribution, and not just a unique value, in the future that will represent the credit exposure. Since there is no unique value, a conservative approach is to pick a quintile of the distribution, and use that as the future value of the derivative contract, with the assurance that the probability of the credit exposure exceeding that quintile is known and has been consciously selected. This number can then be converted to a loan equivalent amount for credit risk purposes. Therefore Choice 'b' is the correct answer. Choice 'a', Choice 'd' and Choice 'c' are incorrect for these reasons.